The situation in Syria continues to escalate as opposition forces make significant territorial gains, displacing thousands and challenging government strongholds.
Anti-government fighters, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are within 5 kilometers of Homs, a strategically vital city linking Damascus to the pro- Bashar al-Assad coastal regions.
HTS captured the towns of Rastan and Talbiseh in Homs governorate, following their swift seizure of Hama and Aleppo. If Homs falls, it could sever key supply lines for the Assad regime.
Humanitarian Crisis in Syria
Over 280,000 people have fled in just one week, with fears the number could rise to 1.5 million, according to the UN World Food Programme. The destruction of the Rastan bridge, a critical link on the M5 highway, exacerbates the plight of fleeing civilians.
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Russian forces have conducted bombings to slow the opposition advance, including targeting the Rastan bridge. Israel attacked two border crossings with Lebanon, citing the targeting of Hezbollah-linked arms hubs. The strikes could complicate access to the Homs region for both rebels and civilians.
Tehran is reportedly sending additional military aid, including missiles, drones, and advisers, to bolster Assad’s forces.
Military Realignments
Syrian troops have retreated from the oil-rich Deir ez-Zor region, now fully under the control of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Hundreds of opposition fighters are reportedly en route to Homs as the battle for the city looms.
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The opposition’s push towards Damascus raises concerns about the Assad regime’s ability to maintain control. If Homs falls, it would mark a turning point, cutting off key government-held territories and destabilizing the remaining power structure.
The Jordanian government has shut the Naseeb border crossing with Syria due to the escalating violence. Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh met with Iraqi and Iranian counterparts in Baghdad, signaling efforts to coordinate a response.
Historical Context of Syrian Conflict
Homs, once known as the “capital of the revolution,” was a hub for early anti-government protests in 2011. It fell under government control in 2014 after prolonged sieges and bombardments but has remained a focal point of conflict.
The situation is fluid and evolving, with the fate of Homs poised to shape the next phase of Syria’s prolonged conflict.
