A significant power struggle is unfolding in Iran as the influential Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly consolidates control over key state functions, sidelining the civilian leadership during the ongoing conflict.
The development comes days after Donald Trump claimed that negotiations were underway with “more moderate” Iranian leaders—an assertion that Tehran has denied, further fuelling uncertainty over who is currently in charge in the country.
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The crisis has been exacerbated by the reported death of Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes early in the conflict. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was subsequently named Supreme Leader, but has not been seen in public since.
While official statements attributed to Mojtaba continue to be broadcast on state television, there has been no direct confirmation of his condition. Reports suggest he may be critically ill, creating a vacuum at the top of Iran’s political and religious leadership.
IRGC Establishes De Facto Control
In the absence of clear leadership, the IRGC has reportedly formed a “military council” of senior commanders to take charge of daily governance and wartime decisions. Sources indicate that the force has imposed tight security around Mojtaba Khamenei, limiting access even for senior government officials.
President Masoud Pezeshkian is believed to be facing a complete political deadlock, with repeated attempts to meet the Supreme Leader going unanswered. The IRGC has also intervened in administrative matters, blocking key appointments and asserting authority over sensitive positions.
A notable example includes the reported rejection of Pezeshkian’s attempt to appoint Hossein Dehghan as intelligence minister, following pressure from IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, who assumed leadership after the death of Mohammad Pakpour during the early phase of the war.
Rising Tensions Between Military and Civilian Leadership
The situation has exposed growing friction between Iran’s military establishment and its elected leadership. President Pezeshkian has reportedly expressed concern over the IRGC’s aggressive regional strategy, particularly its actions targeting neighbouring Gulf countries, warning of severe economic consequences.
Iran’s economy, already under strain due to prolonged conflict and resource depletion, is said to be nearing a critical point, further intensifying internal divisions.
Formed in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution, the IRGC has evolved into a powerful institution with deep influence across military, political, and economic sectors. Its network spans key industries such as oil, banking, transportation, and real estate.
Amid the current crisis, the IRGC has further strengthened its hold, including control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global energy supplies that remains effectively blocked.
Uncertainty Clouds Iran’s Political Future
With the Supreme Leader absent from public view and the IRGC tightening its grip, Iran faces a period of profound political uncertainty. While diplomatic signals continue to emerge from Washington, Tehran’s internal power dynamics remain unclear.
The evolving crisis is likely to have far-reaching implications for regional stability, global oil markets, and the broader geopolitical landscape.
