Thirteen years after the onset of Syria’s devastating civil war, a renewed surge in violence has thrust the conflict back into global focus. Syrian rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have launched a significant offensive on Aleppo, Syria’s former commercial capital, marking the most serious challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in years.
Aleppo, located 350 km north of Damascus, has long been central to Syria’s conflict. Once home to 2.3 million people, it became a flashpoint in 2012 when rebel forces captured its eastern half. In 2016, after a prolonged siege and a brutal Russian-backed assault, Assad’s forces reclaimed the city, consolidating the regime’s hold over key territories.
Today, Aleppo is again at the center of Syria’s war as rebels advance on its outskirts, aiming to undermine Assad’s grip on the region.
The Forces Driving the Aleppo Offensive
The rebel coalition is spearheaded by HTS, a group formerly affiliated with al-Qaida. Despite efforts to rebrand itself as a governance-oriented organization, HTS remains designated as a terrorist group by the United States and the United Nations. The offensive also involves Turkish-backed factions under the Syrian National Army, a coalition often marked by internal discord despite shared opposition to Assad.
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HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has sought to distance the group from its extremist roots, emphasizing governance and military strategy in opposition-held areas. However, critics continue to accuse the group of harboring extremist elements and tolerating militancy.
Objectives and Initial Successes
Rebel commanders have framed the offensive as a defensive necessity aimed at countering attacks on civilian areas. The campaign has rapidly gained ground, capturing villages, key highways, and military bases in Aleppo province. Rebel forces aim to disrupt government supply lines, halt airstrikes, and reclaim territory.
Assad’s Counteroffensive
The Assad regime, supported by Russian airpower, has responded with fierce resistance and airstrikes on opposition-controlled areas, including Idlib and Atareb. Civilian casualties are mounting, with rescue groups reporting dozens of deaths. Iran, another key Assad ally, has suffered losses, including the death of a senior Revolutionary Guards commander.
The offensive unfolds amidst shifting regional dynamics. Iran, engaged in conflicts involving Hamas and Hezbollah, faces stretched resources, while Russia’s focus on Ukraine limits its involvement in Syria. Turkey’s backing of rebel factions adds complexity to the conflict. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria further inflame the situation.
The renewed fighting has displaced nearly 7,000 families in recent weeks, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis in northwest Syria, where millions already live in dire conditions.
Broader Implications
While Assad’s regime retains control over 70% of Syrian territory, its reliance on external allies underscores its fragility. The ongoing offensive risks creating opportunities for extremist groups like the Islamic State to regroup, potentially reigniting broader conflicts across Syria.
As the situation unfolds, the resurgence of violence in Aleppo not only threatens Syria’s tenuous stability but also poses significant challenges to the wider Middle East.
