Renowned economist Christophe Barraud has forecasted a victory for Republican nominee Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections scheduled for November 5. Barraud, often referred to as the “world’s most accurate economist,” bases his prediction on a variety of indicators, including financial market trends, suggesting a potential “GOP clean sweep” in the elections.
In a post on social media platform X, Barraud stated, “Analyzing metrics such as betting markets, polls, and forecasts from election modellers, the most likely outcomes indicate a Trump win and a Republican sweep.” Barraud, who serves as the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, has been recognized for his economic predictions, having topped Bloomberg’s forecast rankings for 11 of the last 12 years. At just 38 years old, his impressive track record lends credibility to his latest assertions.
Barraud further posited that the GOP is expected to secure control of the Senate, while the outcome in the House of Representatives may be more competitive, although it still appears to favor Republican candidates. In a conversation with Business Insider, he remarked that a Trump presidency, along with Republican dominance in Congress, could trigger a temporary boost in the economy, projecting GDP growth rates of 2.1% to 2.3% for 2025. However, he cautioned about potential long-term challenges, including an escalating federal deficit if significant tax reductions are not balanced with alternative revenue sources.
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He also predicted that the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond could rise to 4.5% shortly after a Trump victory, potentially reaching 5% as the new administration’s policies take effect. Barraud anticipates that U.S. GDP growth may exceed consensus projections, which estimate a growth rate of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.
Regardless of the election’s final outcome, Barraud believes that the economy is likely to perform well in the near term. However, he noted that if Congress remains divided, many of Trump’s proposed domestic initiatives could be hindered, compelling him to pivot towards tariffs—an approach that could impede long-term economic growth both domestically and globally.
In a related vein, noted statistician Nate Silver, who has accurately forecasted five U.S. presidential elections, indicated a potential Trump win in a close contest against Kamala Harris, estimating Trump’s chances at 53.1%. He cautioned against relying solely on intuition. Conversely, Allan Lichtman, dubbed the “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections for his successful predictions, believes Harris will ultimately prevail, using his “Keys to the White House” model to evaluate the strengths of the incumbent party.
