India’s GDP surges 8.2% in Q2, beating forecasts despite global trade pressures

The quarter coincided with Washington raising punitive duties on Indian exports by an additional 25%, taking the total levy to 50%. However, robust consumer demand, manufacturing strength and favourable statistical factors helped offset the external challenges.

Economists See Surprise Upside and Strong Carryover Into FY26

Economists noted that several drivers contributed to the stronger-than-expected performance.

Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, told Reuters growth “exceeded expectations dramatically,” supported by a favourable deflator, past monetary easing and limited export disruption.

“Some of these factors will spill over to Q3 as well,” she added, predicting FY26 GDP will comfortably stay above 7%.

ALSO READ: Chhattisgarh flags off largest Copper export to China, sets new benchmark for India’s logistics growth

Garima Kapoor of Elara Securities, also quoted by Reuters, described the data as “blockbuster GDP growth,” crediting front-loaded exports and strong government capital expenditure.

“With today’s print, FY26 growth will likely be close to 7.5%, far above earlier estimates,” she said.

Strong Real Growth Despite Soft Nominal Expansion

Economists also highlighted the unusual gap between nominal and real GDP.

Suvodeep Rakshit, Chief Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities, told Reuters nominal GDP at 8.7% shows a “soft patch,” even as real growth at 8.2% reflects “sustained underlying strength.” He noted that activity was partly weighed down by subdued production during the GST rate transition.

Looking ahead, he expects Q3 FY26 to remain strong, boosted by festive demand and pent-up consumption.