Syria’s future is now uncertain after the sudden collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a rule that once seemed unshakable. The fall of Assad’s government came swiftly as the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Al-Nusra Front and affiliated with Al-Qaeda, led a rapid offensive alongside allied factions, overtaking key territories.
Bashar al-Assad assumed power in 2000, following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled Syria for nearly three decades. Initially, there were hopes that Bashar would introduce reforms and openness to the country. However, those aspirations quickly faded as Assad continued his father’s repressive policies.
The outbreak of protests in 2011 escalated into a brutal civil war that forever marred Assad’s legacy. His violent response to the uprisings led to the deaths of over half a million people, while millions were forced to flee their homes, becoming refugees or internally displaced. Assad’s government, supported by military assistance from Russia and Iran, managed to survive against a divided opposition, relying heavily on Russian air support and Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah.
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However, the war’s shifting dynamics in recent months left Assad increasingly vulnerable. The support from Russia and Iran has diminished, with both countries preoccupied by their own struggles—Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine and Iran’s regional pressures. Within days, rebels captured significant cities, including Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, before advancing on Damascus.
Following Assad’s downfall, rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, now known as Ahmed al-Sharaa, announced the formation of a transitional authority, with Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali appointed as caretaker of state institutions. Al-Jalali expressed his willingness to cooperate with a leadership chosen by the Syrian people, signaling a potential shift toward a new government. However, HTS’s extremist roots cast doubts on its ability to govern the fractured nation. Many fear that, under the guise of nationalist governance, the group may impose authoritarian rule akin to an Islamist regime.
The fall of Assad also marks a significant setback for Russian influence in the region. Russia had been Assad’s most steadfast supporter since its military intervention in 2015, maintaining vital assets like the Tartous naval facility and Hmeimim airbase. Yet with its military focus now on Ukraine, Russia faces challenges in preserving its strategic footholds in Syria.
For Iran, the collapse of Assad disrupts its “Axis of Resistance,” a network linking Tehran with Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria. This network has been crucial for Iran’s regional influence and weapons supply routes. With Hezbollah weakened by its recent conflict with Israel and Iranian proxies under pressure in Yemen and Iraq, Iran’s strategy in the region faces significant changes.
Turkey’s role in Assad’s fall remains unclear. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had long called for a diplomatic solution, Turkey’s interests in Syria have evolved. With over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey, Erdogan seeks a resolution to the conflict that would enable their return. Though Turkey denies direct involvement in the HTS offensive, analysts suggest it may have indirectly supported the group in an effort to secure its borders and counter Kurdish militias.
For Israel, Assad’s collapse presents both an opportunity and a challenge. While the loss of Assad weakens Iran’s influence in Syria, the rise of HTS introduces new uncertainties. Israel has increased its military presence along the Golan Heights to prepare for potential instability and the threat of advanced weaponry falling into the hands of Hezbollah or Iranian forces.
Syria’s future remains unclear, with the end of Assad’s rule raising more questions than answers about the country’s path toward peace and stability. The millions of displaced Syrians continue to watch the situation unfold, unsure of what the future holds.
