India’s economy registered a robust growth rate of 6.2 percent in the third quarter of the financial year 2024-25, as per the latest data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The nominal GDP growth for the same quarter stood at 9.9 percent, indicating a steady economic expansion.
The newly released figures highlight an upward revision in India’s economic growth, with the real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of FY 2024-25 adjusted to 5.6 percent. This sustained economic momentum positions India as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally.
Full-Year GDP Forecast Revised to 6.5 percent
According to official estimates, the growth rate for real GDP in the financial year 2024-25 is now projected at 6.5 percent, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 6.4 percent. While this marks a steady economic trajectory, it would still be the slowest expansion in four years.
For the full financial year 2023-24, India achieved a real GDP growth rate of 9.2 percent, the highest in over a decade, excluding the post-pandemic rebound of 2021-22.
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A strong rural economy played a crucial role in GDP growth between October and December 2024. A favorable monsoon season led to higher agricultural output, significantly boosting rural incomes. Consequently, the agriculture sector is estimated to grow by 4.5 percent in Q3 FY25, a notable improvement from 0.4 percent in the same quarter last year.
Economic Experts Weigh In
Economists have noted the resilience of India’s economy despite global trade uncertainties. Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, stated that while upward revisions to GDP figures have strengthened FY25 estimates, the projected Q4 growth rate of 7.5 percent may be overly optimistic. She anticipates the actual FY25 GDP growth to be 20-30 basis points lower than the CSO estimate.
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Looking ahead, Bhardwaj expects India’s GDP growth for FY26 to be around 6.4 percent, though risks persist due to global economic challenges and trade uncertainties.
