The Congress party, buoyed by a significantly improved performance in the Lok Sabha elections, appears set to close the year on a high note, according to exit polls. These forecasts suggest that the Congress may form the next government in Haryana, bringing an end to the BJP’s decade-long reign, while its alliance with the National Conference is expected to remain competitive in Jammu and Kashmir, which could result in a fractured mandate.
Aggregated data from four exit polls indicates that Congress is likely to secure 55 of Haryana’s 90 seats, comfortably surpassing the halfway mark of 45. In Jammu and Kashmir, where assembly elections were held after a decade, the Congress-National Conference alliance is projected to win around 43 seats—three short of the majority threshold.
However, exit polls are notoriously fickle, and the final results could diverge significantly from these predictions. The BJP is forecasted to secure 24 seats in Haryana and approximately 26 in Jammu and Kashmir. Notably, two exit polls—Dhruv Research and People’s Pulse—offered a more optimistic outlook for the BJP, suggesting a potential maximum of 32 seats in Haryana.
In Haryana, Abhay Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is expected to win three seats, while the BJP’s former ally, the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), is projected to capture one seat. The Aam Aadmi Party, led by Arvind Kejriwal, is anticipated to struggle, with exit polls indicating it may fail to secure any seats in Haryana, despite its governing success in neighboring Delhi and Punjab.
Exit Poll Prediction for Jammu and Kashmir
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir is particularly intriguing, as the possibility of a hung assembly looms large. An aggregate of three exit polls suggests that the Congress and National Conference will collectively garner 43 seats, leaving the BJP’s predicted 26 seats insufficient to form a coalition with smaller parties or independents.
Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which previously allied with the BJP, is projected to win eight seats and may play a pivotal role as a potential kingmaker. However, the PDP has categorically ruled out any partnership with the BJP, instead seeking a “secular alliance.”
The BJP-PDP alliance, which emerged following a split verdict in 2014, dissolved in 2018, leading to the imposition of President’s rule in the region. The BJP’s promise to restore the statehood of Jammu and Kashmir, which was divided into two Union Territories in 2019, adds another layer of complexity to the evolving political landscape.
As the Congress and National Conference contemplate potential collaborations, the historic rivalry between the two parties—both vying for support in the Kashmir Valley—poses significant challenges.
Ahead of the elections, Mehbooba Mufti extended a provocative offer to the NC-Congress alliance, suggesting she would withdraw her party from the contest in exchange for their commitment to her agenda, particularly regarding the resolution of the Kashmir issue and the opening of routes.
The political dynamics continue to unfold as the counting of votes is scheduled for October 8, leaving many questions regarding future alliances and the governance of these crucial states.
