Axis My India Bihar Assembly Election Exit Poll Prediction | The tenth exit poll for the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 has joined others in predicting a clear majority for the NDA, although by the slimmest margin so far.
According to Axis My India, the ruling alliance may win 121 to 141 seats in the 243-member Assembly, barely crossing the majority mark of 122.
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— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 12, 2025
The Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 98–118 seats, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is expected to either draw a blank or win up to two constituencies.
How Other Exit Polls Compare
Among the nine other exit polls released on Tuesday, the lowest NDA projection came from Chanakya Strategies, which forecast 130–138 seats for the alliance.
Two other agencies, People’s Insight and People’s Pulse, pegged the NDA’s tally at a minimum of 133 seats, while Matrize was the most optimistic, projecting a sweep with 147–167 seats — crossing the two-thirds majority mark.
The NDTV Poll of Exit Polls, an aggregate of all predictions, suggests the NDA could secure 146 constituencies, while the Mahagathbandhan may settle at 91. The Jan Suraaj Party may barely open its account with one seat.
Note: Exit polls often get it wrong — actual results will be known on Friday.
Fourth Consecutive Boost for NDA
If the projections hold, this will mark the fourth consecutive electoral boost for the BJP-led NDA after the Lok Sabha polls.
The alliance recently managed to retain Haryana, oust the AAP from Delhi, and hold Maharashtra, strengthening its national footprint.
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The Bihar election was seen as one of the toughest contests for the NDA, given Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s 20-year tenure (barring a nine-month break).
Analysts had expected significant anti-incumbency, but exit polls suggest otherwise.
Whatever votes were cast against the ruling alliance appear to have been split between the Mahagathbandhan and the Jan Suraaj Party, effectively benefiting the NDA.
