The Delhi Assembly Election 2025 exit polls indicate a potential power shift, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) projected to secure a majority after a decade of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) rule. While multiple polling agencies suggest the BJP has the edge, the AAP remains confident of defying predictions, dismissing the exit poll numbers.
BJP Poised for a Comeback After 25 Years?
If the exit polls prove accurate, the BJP may reclaim Delhi after 25 years. According to Chanakya Strategies, the BJP could win between 39-44 seats, while AAP is expected to secure 25-28 seats. DV Research predicts BJP’s seat count between 36-44, while AAP may win 26-34 seats. The Congress, which once dominated Delhi’s politics, is expected to struggle, with projections ranging from 0 to 3 seats.
Despite these numbers, the AAP has rejected the exit poll forecasts, with party leaders asserting that the final results will favor them.
AAP Dismisses Exit Polls, Confident of Fourth Term
AAP leader Sushil Gupta dismissed the exit poll results, highlighting that similar projections in previous elections also underestimated AAP’s strength.
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“This is our fourth election, and every time exit polls did not show AAP forming the government. Arvind Kejriwal has worked for the people of Delhi, and we will see the results in favor of the Aam Aadmi Party,” he said.
AAP’s 10-Year Rule Under Scrutiny Amid Corruption Charges
The 2025 election is a crucial test for AAP, which first came to power in 2013 and secured massive victories in 2015 and 2020. However, the party has faced setbacks in recent years, with corruption allegations, particularly related to the liquor policy case, tarnishing its clean-governance image.
Several top AAP leaders, including Manish Sisodia and Satyendar Jain, were arrested, and the party faced repeated clashes with the central government over governance issues. Despite these challenges, AAP leaders maintain that their track record in governance will help them secure another term.
BJP’s Strategy and Modi Factor Drive Momentum
The BJP, which has been out of power in Delhi since 1998, launched an aggressive campaign to regain lost ground. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah leading major rallies, the BJP focused on attacking AAP’s governance failures and corruption allegations.
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If the BJP converts its exit poll lead into actual seats, it will mark a major political shift in Delhi, ending AAP’s decade-long dominance.
Exit Polls: How Accurate Have They Been in the Past?
Exit polls in Delhi elections have been hit-or-miss over the years:
– 2013: Predicted a hung assembly but underestimated AAP’s rise.
– 2015: Expected an AAP win, but failed to predict the massive 67-seat landslide.
– 2020: Exit polls came closer to the actual results, but still underestimated AAP’s final seat count of 62.
While polling methodologies have improved, exit polls are not always accurate, and the final results on counting day will be the ultimate test.
Turnout Trends and What They Indicate
The voter turnout in the 2025 election is expected to be crucial. In the 2020 Delhi election, the turnout was 62.82 percent, which was lower than the 67.47 percent recorded in 2015. Lower voter turnout often impacts the ruling party, as opposition voters tend to be more motivated to vote for change.
As Delhi awaits the final results, all eyes are on whether BJP’s projected surge will materialize or if AAP can once again prove the exit polls wrong. The fate of Delhi’s leadership will soon be decided.
