Lok Sabha elections 2024: As the electoral drums beat louder in anticipation of the inaugural phase of Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, the political gaze converges on the pivotal constituencies of Rampur, Moradabad, and Sambhal, among others, in the western hinterlands. Here, the electoral canvas is painted with the hues of diverse demographics, with Muslim constituents constituting a substantial proportion ranging from 23 to 42 percent.
In this political theater, where the stakes are high and the electorate formidable, a staggering 15.34 crore voters are poised to exercise their franchise in Uttar Pradesh. This state, endowed with 80 Lok Sabha seats, assumes paramount significance in the national political arena. The electoral saga unfolds across seven phases, commencing on April 19 and culminating with the grand reckoning on June 4.
In the annals of recent electoral history, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged triumphant in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, clinching 62 seats, alongside its ally Apna Dal (S) securing two. The formidable coalition thwarted the challenge posed by the SP-BSP alliance, with the Congress managing to retain the lone bastion of Rae Bareli under the stewardship of Sonia Gandhi. Notably, the BSP emerged as a notable force within the alliance, bagging 10 seats, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) secured five seats. In a turn of events, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the smaller cog in the alliance machinery, failed to make electoral inroads.
However, as the political pendulum swings anew, the landscape has undergone a metamorphosis. In the byzantine web of electoral realignments, the BSP has charted an independent course this time, eschewing the cloak of alliance politics. Concurrently, the Rashtriya Lok Dal, with its foothold in the Jat community of western Uttar Pradesh, finds itself aligned with the BJP, altering the political calculus in the region.
In the unfolding drama of electoral theatrics, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress have forged an alliance, seeking to reclaim lost ground in the political labyrinth of Uttar Pradesh. With a strategic eye on the formidable Muslim electorate, the battleground shifts to the Lok Sabha constituencies of western Uttar Pradesh, where demographic dynamics paint a vivid tapestry of diversity.
In these electoral crucibles, where the Muslim populace holds sway, key battlegrounds emerge in Rampur (42 percent), Amroha (32 percent), Saharanpur (30 percent), Bijnor, Nagina, and Moradabad (28 percent each), alongside Muzaffarnagar (27 percent), Kairana and Meerut (23 percent each), and Sambhal (22 percent). Beyond these bastions, the Muslim vote wields influence in Bulandshahr, Baghpat, and Aligarh, where they constitute 19 percent of the electorate each.
In the electoral saga of 2019, the BSP clinched victory in the Muslim-Dalit strongholds of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Nagina, and Amroha, while its coalition partner, the SP, secured triumph in Moradabad, Rampur, and Sambhal. However, the BJP capitalized on a fracturing of Muslim votes in select constituencies, notching victories in Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Baghpat, and Aligarh.
As the political chessboard undergoes a seismic shift, the foremost challenge confronting the SP-Congress alliance lies in stemming the dispersion of Muslim votes. Their electoral fortunes hinge on consolidating Muslim support, a task fraught with complexity in the wake of muted advocacy on Muslim-centric issues by the SP since 2019. Compounding this challenge is the BSP’s strategic move to field Muslim candidates in constituencies with significant Dalit demographics, blurring traditional electoral fault lines.
Moreover, the alignment of the Rashtriya Lok Dal with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance further complicates the electoral calculus, as erstwhile Jat voters, erstwhile peripheral to the BJP’s ambit, now rally under its banner. Thus, the SP-Congress alliance must navigate these intricate political currents to harness the collective might of the Muslim electorate and secure victory in these crucial battlegrounds.
Amidst the political tumult, Samajwadi Party stalwarts assert the unwavering support of Muslim voters, reaffirming their allegiance to the party’s cause. Dismissing concerns over the Rashtriya Lok Dal’s dalliance with the BJP, they contend that this partnership lacks organic resonance, rendering it ineffectual in swaying the fortunes of the SP alliance. Moreover, recent political trajectories suggest a waning influence of the RLD, further diminishing its capacity to tilt the electoral scales.
Lok Sabha elections 2024: Reflecting on the electoral landscape of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections , the Samajwadi Party points to a nuanced narrative. They argue that the BSP’s electoral gains, buoyed by Muslim votes allegedly siphoned from the SP, belie a more intricate political calculus. With no formal alliance between the SP and BSP during the 2022 assembly elections, the SP asserts its prowess in wresting Muslim-dominated constituencies from the BSP, debunking claims of disenchantment among Muslim voters.
In the annals of electoral history, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections witnessed a seismic shift in India’s political paradigm. The Bharatiya Janata Party etched its name in the annals of history, clinching a record-breaking 37.36 percent of the popular vote share, a feat unparalleled since the watershed elections of 1989. Securing an individual mandate of 303 seats, the BJP propelled the National Democratic Alliance to a commanding victory, tallying a formidable 353 seats. Conversely, the Indian National Congress, helmed by Rahul Gandhi, grappled with a modest tally of 52 seats, while the United Progressive Alliance notched a cumulative total of 98 seats under its stewardship. Lok Sabha elections 2024
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