The Southwest monsoon is now expected to arrive in Kerela, lately in this week around June 5 and 6, as predicted by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on June 2.
The onset of the rain would start with weak intensity. This will happen due to the El nino effect emerging in the Pacific ocean. The IMD had earlier forecasted the arrival the onset of monsoon to take place around May 26 and this time the monsoon are a bit delayed.
El Niño warms Pacific waters, weakening India’s monsoon winds and causing deficient rainfall. This disrupts agriculture, reduces crop yields, triggers droughts, and increase in food prices nationwide significantly.
What did IMD say
IMD communicated that this year India is expected to receive 90% of its Long Period Average (LPA). From 1971 till 2020, India’s LPA is 87 centimeters. The weather department had lowered its forecast from 92% to 90%. Rainfall below 90% is considered as deficient by IMD.
IMD said, “Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian sea, the Lakshadweep islands, and parts of Kerela and Tamil Nadu during the next two to three days.”
Global Forecast System (GFS)
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a latest model which is used by IMD. It processes vast atmospheric data to predict weather patterns in advance. India uses the Global Forecast System model alongside IMD’s models for weather prediction. GFS provides crucial global data helping forecast monsoons, cyclones, and rainfall nationwide accurately.
