Several exit polls released on April 29 projected a strong performance for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the latest round of Assembly elections, forecasting a decisive win in Assam and giving the party an edge in West Bengal. The projections also indicated a return of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu and a comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front in Kerala.
However, the projections remained divided in several states, with some pollsters forecasting contrasting outcomes, particularly in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
Mixed Projections in West Bengal
In West Bengal’s 294-member Assembly, where the majority mark is 148, most pollsters predicted a BJP advantage or victory. Matrize projected 146–161 seats for the BJP and 125–140 for the All India Trinamool Congress. P-Marq forecast 150–175 seats for the BJP and 118–138 for the TMC, while Poll Diary estimated 142–171 seats for the BJP and 99–127 for the TMC.
However, People’s Pulse and Janmat polls diverged from this trend. People’s Pulse projected 177–187 seats for the TMC and 95–110 for the BJP, while Janmat forecast 195–205 seats for the TMC, indicating a strong return for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Assam Exit Polls Indicate BJP Sweep
In Assam, exit polls were largely unanimous in predicting a comfortable victory for the BJP-led alliance in the 126-member Assembly, where the majority mark is 64.
Axis My India projected 88–100 seats for the BJP and its allies, while Matrize estimated 85–95 seats. People’s Pulse forecast 68–72 seats for the NDA, and JVC projected 88–101 seats. Other pollsters, including Kamakhya Analytics, People’s Insight and Poll Diary, also placed the BJP-led alliance well ahead of the Congress and its partners.
Tamil Nadu Sees Split Verdict, DMK Ahead
In Tamil Nadu, most exit polls suggested a return of the DMK-led alliance in the 234-member Assembly, where the majority mark is 118. People’s Pulse projected 125–145 seats for the DMK alliance, while Matrize forecast 122–132 seats. P-Marq also predicted 125–145 seats.
However, Axis My India and Kamakhya Analytics indicated the possibility of a hung Assembly, with the debutant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam emerging as a key factor. JVC was the only pollster to forecast a win for the AIADMK-led alliance.
Kerala Likely to See UDF Comeback
In Kerala, most exit polls projected a return of the UDF in the 140-member Assembly, where the majority mark is 71.
Axis My India forecast 78–90 seats for the UDF, while People’s Pulse estimated 75–85 seats. Other pollsters, including Matrize and People’s Insight, also indicated an advantage for the UDF over the ruling Left Democratic Front.
NDA Set to Retain Puducherry
In Puducherry, most projections suggested a return of the NDA government led by the All India N.R. Congress.
Axis My India projected 16–20 seats for the NDA in the 30-member Assembly, while Kamakhya Analytics forecast 17–24 seats. People’s Pulse and Praja Poll also predicted a clear lead for the AINRC-led alliance.
Voting for the five assemblies—West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry—was conducted in April, with West Bengal going to polls in two phases on April 23 and 29, while the other states voted in a single phase.
The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4.
Exit polls have historically shown mixed accuracy, with several projections missing final outcomes in previous elections. Some estimates, including those by Axis My India for West Bengal, are yet to be released.
