The Parliamentary election has exposed two parties in the run up to the polls — Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which once enjoyed the pride of place in the most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, and Hyderabad-based Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which aspires to expand its footprint in the Hindi heartland. Both chose to remain away from the Opposition grouping called INDIA, effectively the furthering poll prospects of the ruling NDA. They will be in the crosshairs of the voters.
The BSP, which won 10 Lok Sabha seats from UP in the 2019 election as against five by arch rival SP, is said to be facing an uphill task this time. The reason: It has chosen to weaken the Opposition by not aligning with it as an INDIA partner, thereby giving an impression to the voters that Mayawati is indirectly supporting the BJP-led NDA.
It is almost the same story with Owaisi who has decided to field candidates independently in UP and Bihar. As an effect, he too will be strengthening the BJP by doing so. A party with predominantly Muslim voter base, Owaisi will be splitting the minority votes in seats being contested by the SP and the Congress in the UP and the RJD in Bihar. It is a separate matter that the minority voters in these two states are acutely aware of the political scene and may, as usual, vote strategically to help the Opposition.
Pertinently, Owaisi continues to be a strong critic of the BJP and its top leadership, including Prime Minister Modi. He attacks frontally to Modi and the BJP both inside and outside Parliament. When time comes for an electoral battle, however, his actions give out a different signal. He fielded several candidates, mostly Muslims, from minority dominated constituencies in Bihar in the last Lok Sabha polls. He is set to be doing the same this time as well. This will only help the BJP.
Various reasons are proffered by the two parties for not joining the Opposition alliance. One is to keep their individual identity intact. But observers do not fail to notice what they call a hidden agenda of these two parties. To that extent, both the BSP and the AIMIM stand to lose in the long run. It remains to be seen how many seats Mayawati gets in her home turf UP. Owaisi will also gauge its strength in the two north Indian states.
The perceived proximity of the two parties to the BJP will in the long run adversely affect Mayawati and Owaisi’s leadership. It will, of course, depend on the seats the two parties get in the Lok Sabha polls. If they perform badly, the perception of their proximity to the ruling BJP will stick in voters’ mind. For, Dalits and Muslims are said to be gravitating to the Congress-SP-RJD axis in UP and Bihar.
Significantly, neither Mayawati nor Owaisi is visible in the social media in any significant manner. Their presence in the electronic media too appears negligible in the context of this election. Social media presence is a strong barometer, especially this time when political parties are in a do or die struggle.
(The views and opinions express in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views of The Theorist)
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