With the 2024 US Presidential election drawing near an end, the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House raises pressing questions about the future of India-US relations. Trump, a Republican candidate, has signalled his intent to revive his “America First” foreign policy approach if he wins, which could mean a recalibration of America’s role on the global stage.
India’s External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, has remarked that regardless of the election outcome — be it Trump or Kamala Harris — the US may lean towards a more isolationist foreign policy.
For India, a key US strategic partner, a second Trump presidency offers both opportunities and challenges, with potential implications across areas like trade, immigration, defence, and diplomacy.
India-US Trade: Navigating Tariffs and Reciprocity
Trump has long prioritized reducing trade deficits and believes in “reciprocity” in trade deals. Recently, he accused India of imposing some of the highest tariffs on foreign products and suggested he would introduce a “reciprocal tax” if re-elected.
“Perhaps the most important element of my plan to make America extraordinarily wealthy again is reciprocity,” Trump said. “India is a very big charger. We have a great relationship with India, and especially with Modi. He’s a great leader. But they probably charge as much.”
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The potential for increased tariffs could impact major Indian sectors such as IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, which rely heavily on the US market. However, as Trump seeks to reduce reliance on China, new trade opportunities could emerge for India to attract American firms looking to diversify their supply chains away from China.
Immigration Policy and the H-1B Visa Program
Under Trump’s first term, restrictive immigration policies affected the H-1B visa program, creating obstacles for Indian IT professionals and tech companies dependent on skilled workers. If re-elected, similar policies might resurface, impacting Indian talent and possibly affecting technology firms in the US.
“For Trump, I think there will be some difficult negotiations over trade and immigration, although on many other issues, he has spoken about a very positive relationship with India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” Jaishankar was recently quoted by a news agency.
India’s booming tech industry and the increasing number of Indian students in the US could be significantly impacted by stricter immigration policies. These challenges could potentially push Indian companies to expand operations locally instead of in the US, impacting India’s talent migration and revenue from services abroad.
Military Cooperation and Defence Ties: Aligning in the Indo-Pacific
Defence relations between India and the US have grown stronger under successive administrations, with landmark agreements such as the GE-HAL jet engine deal and the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET). Trump has previously expressed skepticism about traditional military alliances like NATO, which could signal a similarly cautious approach toward military commitments. However, given the shared aim of countering China’s influence, India-US military collaboration is likely to continue.
During Trump’s previous term, the US, India, Japan, and Australia strengthened their alliance through the Quad, aimed at maintaining security in the Indo-Pacific. If Trump returns, the Quad and other defence initiatives could see further expansion, with increased arms sales, joint exercises, and potential technology transfers.
Counterterrorism: A Shared Security Interest
Trump’s “Peace through Strength” approach to counterterrorism aligns closely with India’s security concerns, particularly regarding Pakistan. India’s long-standing desire for stronger US action on cross-border terrorism could gain traction under a second Trump administration, enhancing India-US cooperation on intelligence and counterterrorism.
As the 2024 election unfolds, India’s strategic considerations will be shaped by the evolving dynamics in Washington, D.C., and the potential implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency. While some aspects of Trump’s policies could present challenges, particularly around trade and immigration, they may also open new avenues for deeper cooperation in defense, counterterrorism, and regional stability.
