After the Russia-Ukraine war started in February 2022, some analysts speculated that it could take as little as three days for Russian forces to seize the capital city of Kyiv. As the war now extends into its third year, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be leveraging that initial setback to his advantage. Instead of pursuing rapid military gains, Putin seems to be adopting a strategy of patience, waiting for Western support for Ukraine to wane while Moscow maintains consistent military pressure along the frontline.
However, Putin’s prolonged approach comes with its own drawbacks. The ongoing conflict is exacting a heavy toll on Russia, depleting its economic and military resources and exacerbating social tensions. Additionally, the recent death of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny serves as a stark reminder of the Kremlin’s harsh crackdown on dissent.
According to centre for strategic & InternationalStudies Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is viewed as the most significant threatto peace and security in Europe since the end of the Cold War. On February 21,2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech that wascharacterized as bizarre and unhinged, citing various grievances to justify the”special military operation” announced the next day.
While Putin referenced longstanding disputes over NATO expansion and the post-Cold War security structure in Europe, the core of his speech revolved around questioning the legitimacy of Ukrainian identity and statehood.
*The Treasury Department is on Friday set to implement over 500 new sanctions on Russia and its military operations, marking a significant escalation in the U.S.’s financial pressure campaign against Moscow as the conflict enters its third year. These sanctions constitute the largest batch of penalties imposed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. They follow a series of recent arrests and indictments announced by the Justice Department on Thursday, which targeted Russian businessmen, including the leader of Russia’s second-largest bank, and their intermediaries in five distinct federal cases.
Timeline:
*The US is preparing to unveil a comprehensive set of sanctions targeting primarily Vladimir Putin’s military apparatus on Friday, stated Victoria Nuland, the undersecretary of state. These measures come ahead of the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Additionally, further sanctions will be imposed in response to the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny while in Kremlin custody, and to address gaps in existing sanctions.
*US President Joe Biden, after meeting with Navalny’s wife and daughter,affirmed the forthcoming sanctions against Putin, holding him responsible forNavalny’s demise. The White House emphasized that these sanctions are aresponse to “Alexei’s death, Russia’s repression and aggression, and its brutaland illegal war in Ukraine.”
*In response to the west’s reaction to Navalny’s death, Russian ForeignMinister Sergei Lavrov criticized what he termed as “hysteria” andinsisted that western countries refrain from interfering in Russia’s internalaffairs.
*Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy appealed to the US Congress foradditional aid, warning that a failure to provide support could result inUkrainian casualties. He made this plea during an interview with Fox News,highlighting the importance of acting now to prevent potential confrontationswith Putin later.
*The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced a staff-level agreementwith Ukraine’s government, paving the way for the release of approximately $880million upon approval by the IMF board. This agreement follows extensivediscussions between Ukrainian officials and IMF staff in Warsaw regardingUkraine’s Extended Fund Facility Arrangement.
*The UK has expanded its Russia sanctions list, adding 50 new entities.Foreign Secretary David Cameron stated that these sanctions are aimed atdepriving Putin of the resources needed to sustain his military efforts.Furthermore, the UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps revealed plans to send anadditional 200 anti-tank missiles to Ukraine and to conduct further trainingfor Ukrainian troops alongside other allies.
*President Biden endorsed Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to succeed JensStoltenberg as the next Secretary General of NATO. Meanwhile, Putin criticizedBiden’s recent remarks, describing them as “rude” after a flight on astrategic bomber capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
*Lyudmila Navalnaya, Alexei Navalny’s mother, claimed to have seen her son’sbody and accused Russian investigators of pressuring her regarding his funeralarrangements. She alleged that investigators are attempting to force her intoholding a private burial ceremony without mourners, quoting one investigator assaying, “Time is not on your side, corpses decompose.”
Putin’s worldview emphasizes the historical unity among Eastern Slavs—Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians—who share origins in the medieval Kyivan Rus commonwealth. He suggests that Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus should share a political destiny, viewing distinct Ukrainian and Belarusian identities as products of foreign manipulation.
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Throughout his tenure, Putin has pursued a policy toward Ukraine and Belarus based on the assumption that their national identities are artificial and therefore fragile. He often portrays the promotion of Ukrainian and Belarusian identity as part of a geopolitical struggle against Russia, echoing historical narratives that reject the autonomy of people seeking independence from Russian domination.
The emphasis on Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian unity sheds light on the origins of the conflict and Moscow’s willingness to risk war omits borders. Beyond preventing Ukrainian NATO membership, Russia seeks political, military, and economic dominance over Ukraine.
Russia’s military strategy assumed that shared cultural, linguistic, and religious ties would lead many Ukrainians to accept reintegration into a Russian sphere of influence. However, this calculation underestimated the consolidation of Ukrainian civic identity in the past three decades, especially since the 2014 “Revolution of Dignity” and Russia’s subsequent actions in Crimea and Donbas.
Despite initial assumptions, the current war has further united Ukrainian citizens and reinforced the distinction between Ukrainian and Russian identities. As a result, Russia is likely to fail in its attempt to establish lasting control over Ukraine, regardless of the outcome on the battlefield.
