Tropical Storm Erin, which formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean earlier this week, is on the brink of becoming the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).
As of 8 am Friday, Erin was producing maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, just shy of the 74 mph threshold needed for hurricane classification. The storm’s center was located about 520 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 17 mph.
“Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane by this weekend,” the NHC said. A major hurricane is defined as Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
On Thursday evening, the NHC noted Erin would likely become “large and formidable.” Current forecasts suggest the storm does not pose a direct threat to the US.
Projected Path and Impact on the Northern Leeward Islands
Erin formed just west of the Cabo Verde islands before tracking westward across the Atlantic. The NHC’s projected path indicates the storm’s center will move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. These islands include Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barts, Antigua and Barbuda, and others.
ALSO READ: Trump issues stern warning to Putin ahead of Ukraine peace talks in Alaska
In Cabo Verde, where Erin originated, local media reported flooding damage and at least eight fatalities. Officials have declared a state of emergency as recovery crews respond.
A “spaghetti map” of forecast models shows Erin curving to the northwest and north in the coming days, keeping it away from direct US landfall.
Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
Erin is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began in June and runs through November, with peak activity between August and October. Earlier storms this season include Tropical Storm Dexter, which formed last week, and Tropical Storm Chantal, which caused deadly flooding in the Carolinas in early July.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, expecting 13 to 18 named storms, of which five to nine could become hurricanes.
