In a recent interview with a media channel, political strategist Prashant Kishor shared his analysis of the ongoing Lok Sabha election, suggesting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to secure another victory for the BJP.
Prashant Kishor, who now heads Jan Suraaj, indicated that the BJP’s performance is likely to be on par with or even surpass its 2019 tally of 303 seats.
When asked by NDTV about his prediction for the June 4 results, Prashant Kishor maintained a consistent stance. “The future will show what the June 4 result will be. Journalists, psephologists, and experts have their own opinions. As far as I am concerned, I would say consistency can sometimes be boring. For the past five months, I have been saying that no matter how you assess the elections, it seems Modi-led BJP is returning. They may get the same numbers as last election or do slightly better,” he said.
Prashant Kishor emphasised the importance of fundamental political dynamics. He noted the absence of widespread anger against the incumbent government as a key factor.
“If there is anger against the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless of whether there is an alternative, people may decide to vote them out. So far, we have not heard that there is widespread public anger against Modiji. There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger,” he explained.
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Prashant Kishor also addressed the lack of a strong alternative challenger. “This is when people feel that if this person comes, our situation would improve. We have not heard anything like things will be better if Rahul Gandhi comes. His supporters may say that, but I am talking about a more widespread level,” said Prashant Kishor.
He added, “There is an absence of widespread anger against the incumbent or a clamour for somebody who is a challenger. So, I don’t think there would be a huge change in numbers.”
Discussing the BJP’s electoral strongholds, Prashant Kishor pointed out that the North and West regions, accounting for about 325 Lok Sabha seats, have been BJP bastions since 2014. “In the East and South, which account for 225-odd seats, the BJP has not performed very well over the past decade. Out of these 225 seats, the BJP currently holds less than 50. Now, if BJP has to lose, you need to see if they have suffered any material damage in the North and West. My assessment is that it has not. But in the East and South, its vote share and seats are likely to increase,” he said.
Prashant Kishor predicted a “status quo or a status quo with a positive bias in favour of incumbent,” seeing little chance of the BJP’s seat count declining.
On the BJP’s ambitious target of 370 seats, he remarked, “If the BJP wins 275 seats, its leaders are not going to say that we will not form the government because we had claimed we will win 370. So, we need to see whether they are getting 272, the majority mark. Politics and chatter will continue. Those doing commentary will continue to do so. But I don’t see any risk, and the NDA seems to be returning to power.”
Prashant Kishor credited the BJP with successfully shifting the political narrative. “Modiji and BJP shifted the goalpost from 272 to 370. So, the entire discussion now is on whether BJP is getting 370. No one is talking about 272. We must give credit to BJP and Modiji for changing the nucleus of the discussion and they have gained from it. Nobody is saying that Modiji is losing. Everyone is saying they are not getting 370. But even if they get 320, they will still form the government,” he concluded.
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