With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Iran faces a pivotal moment in redefining its relationship with Syria and navigating the shifting geopolitical landscape. While Tehran has expressed its intent to maintain relations with Syria, the approach of the opposition groups towards Israel is likely to be a critical factor in shaping future ties.
Iran, a staunch ally of Bashar al-Assad for over four decades, has yet to officially comment on reports of direct dialogue with the opposition groups that ousted the Syrian ruler. However, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani has emphasized Iran’s respect for Syria’s territorial integrity and affirmed that the Syrian people should determine their own future. Mohajerani also highlighted that any new Syrian administration’s stance towards Israel would significantly influence Tehran’s relations.
The commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, revealed during a closed-door parliamentary session that no Iranian forces remain in Syria. He assured lawmakers that Iranian troops had supported Assad’s government until its last moments, underscoring that Iran’s influence in the region remains undiminished.
Massive Investments and National Interests
Iran invested tens of billions of dollars to support Assad during Syria’s civil war, providing fighters, weapons, and military expertise. This expenditure aimed to uphold Tehran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States. Despite the financial losses, Mohajerani defended the investments, asserting they were in line with Iran’s national interests.
Since Assad’s overthrow, Iran has repatriated approximately 4,000 citizens from Syria through 10 flights operated by Mahan Air, a heavily sanctioned Iranian airline. The focus now shifts to how Tehran will recalibrate its strategy in Syria amidst the changing dynamics.
Condemnation of Israeli Actions
Iran’s rhetoric has shifted to strongly condemning Israel, which has escalated military operations in Syria following Assad’s fall. Israeli airstrikes have targeted Syrian infrastructure, including military bases, research centers, and weapons depots, with hundreds of attacks reported since Sunday. Israeli ground forces have also advanced into Syrian territory, reaching within 20 kilometers of Damascus.
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Tehran has accused Israel of exploiting Syria’s political instability to further its objectives. Iranian officials have vowed to leverage regional and international capacities to “stop the crimes of the Zionist regime against Syria,” although no specific actions have been detailed.
Attacks on Iranian Missions
Iran has reported attacks on its diplomatic missions in Syria. The Iranian embassy in Damascus was stormed and vandalized amid the chaos following Assad’s fall. Archives and documents were reportedly stolen, and significant damage was inflicted on the building. Similarly, the Iranian consulate in Aleppo was shelled and later overrun by militants. Iran has condemned these incidents in a letter to the UN Security Council but has refrained from assigning blame to specific groups.
Tehran’s future relationship with Syria hinges on how the opposition groups—particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the offensive against Assad—position themselves concerning Israel. Iran’s leadership has reiterated its commitment to opposing Israel’s actions in the region and maintaining influence within Syria, albeit through recalibrated strategies.
As the region adjusts to a post-Assad Syria, Iran’s ability to navigate these challenges will play a crucial role in shaping its geopolitical standing and influence in the Middle East.
