Nine nations armed with nuclear weapons, including the US, Russia, France, China, India, and Pakistan, continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals and deployed new nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released on Monday.
SIPRI’s analysis highlighted a significant increase in China’s nuclear arsenal, which grew from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, with expectations of further growth. The report noted that approximately 2,100 deployed warheads were maintained in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, predominantly by Russia and the US. For the first time, China is also believed to have some warheads on high operational alert.
Countries with nuclear weapons
The report stated that the nine nuclear-armed states—the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—have all continued to enhance their nuclear capabilities. As of January 2024, the global inventory of nuclear warheads was estimated at 12,121, with about 9,585 in military stockpiles for potential use. Of these, around 3,904 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, an increase of 60 from January 2023, while the remainder were in central storage.
“Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the US, but for the first time China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert,” the report noted.
Multiple warheads on ballistic missiles
SIPRI reported that India, Pakistan, and North Korea are pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, a technology already possessed by Russia, France, the UK, the US, and more recently, China. This capability could rapidly increase the number of deployed warheads and enhance the strategic threat posed by nuclear-armed countries.
The report underscored that Russia and the US together possess almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons. Despite stable military stockpiles in 2023, Russia is estimated to have deployed around 36 more warheads with operational forces compared to January 2023. Transparency regarding nuclear forces has decreased in both countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, leading to increased debates around nuclear-sharing arrangements.
How many nuclear warheads with India and Pakistan
SIPRI estimated India’s ‘stored’ nuclear warheads at 172 in January 2024, while Pakistan’s count was 170. Both countries slightly expanded their arsenals in 2023 and continued developing new nuclear delivery systems. Although Pakistan remains India’s primary focus for nuclear deterrence, India is increasingly emphasizing longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China.
Depending on its strategic decisions, China could potentially have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either Russia or the US by the end of the decade. However, China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads is expected to remain significantly smaller than those of Russia and the US.
“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” said Hans M Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). “But in nearly all of the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces,” Kristensen added.
This ongoing modernisation and expansion of nuclear arsenals underscore the continued strategic importance of nuclear weapons in global security dynamics.
