The exit polls indicate that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could secure as many as seven Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, a state where Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party has historically struggled. The predictions come after the final phase of voting concluded.
The most optimistic forecast comes from the India TV-CNX exit poll, which gives the NDA between five and seven seats. India Today-Axis My India predicts a more conservative two to four seats, while the Jan Ki Baat exit poll estimates the alliance will win five seats.
Other exit polls, including ABP News-C Voter, India News-D Dynamics, and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat, all predict that the NDA will win at least one seat.
It is noteworthy that the exit polls attribute the seats to the NDA coalition rather than the BJP alone, which has only won one seat in Tamil Nadu in the past two elections. In 2014, Pon Radhakrishnan won the Kanyakumari seat.
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In the 2019 elections, the BJP allied with the AIADMK but faced a heavy defeat from the DMK-Congress coalition, which claimed 38 of the state’s 39 seats. The AIADMK’s P Ravindhranath secured the lone hold-out seat of Theni. This year, following a fallout with the AIADMK, the BJP fielded candidates in 23 seats and allied with nine regional Tamil parties, including S. Ramadoss’ Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Tamil Maanila Congress, and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).
The BJP’s significant focus on Tamil Nadu included nearly a dozen visits by Prime Minister Modi since the election dates were announced. This strategy reflects the party’s broader ambition to surpass 400 seats nationally, including those won by allies.
In contrast, the Congress-led INDIA bloc, including the state’s ruling DMK, is predicted to dominate the majority of seats. ABP News-C Voter forecasts 37-39 seats for the alliance, India Today-Axis My India predicts 33-37, and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat gives 35 seats. India News-D Dynamics projects 28 seats for the alliance, and Jan Ki Baat estimates 34-38.
The AIADMK, contesting independently, is expected to continue struggling. The best projection for the party comes from India News-D Dynamics, which predicts five seats, while other polls give it between zero and two seats.
Overall, exit polls suggest a substantial win for the BJP, potentially securing a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Modi, though they may fall short of the party’s ambitious target of 370+ seats independently and over 400 with allies. The opposition INDIA bloc is anticipated to fall well short of the 285 seats projected by Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge.
(DISCLAIMER: Exit Poll predictions are not the final results and may be incorrect)
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