As the voting for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections comes to an end on Saturday, all eyes turn to the exit polls, which are set to be broadcast from 6:30 pm. While these polls attempt to predict the outcomes before the official results are announced by the Election Commission of India on June 4, they have historically been varied in their accuracy.

Here’s a look at past exit poll projections compared to actual results from the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Exit Polls vs. Actual Results: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

Exit Poll Predictions for NDA:

1. India Today-Cicero: 272 seats
2. News 24-Chanakya: 340 seats
3. CNN-IBN-CSDS: 280 seats
4. Times Now ORG: 249 seats
5. ABP News-Nielsen: 274 seats
6. NDTV-Hansa Research: 279 seats

Exit Poll Predictions for UPA:

1. India Today-Cicero: 115 seats
2. News 24-Chanakya: 101 seats
3. CNN-IBN-CSDS: 97 seats
4. Times Now ORG: 148 seats
5. ABP News-Nielsen: 97 seats
6. NDTV-Hansa Research: 103 seats

Actual Results:

NDA: 336 seats (BJP alone won 282 seats)

UPA: 60 seats (Congress won just 44 seats)

The exit polls in 2014 generally predicted an NDA victory but significantly underestimated the scale of the BJP’s landslide win.

Exit Polls vs. Actual Results: 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

Exit Poll Predictions for NDA:

1. India Today-Axis: 339-365 seats
2. News 24-Today’s Chanakya: 350 seats
3. News18-IPSOS: 336 seats
4. Times Now VMR: 306 seats
5. India TV-CNX: 300 seats
6. Sudarshan News: 305 seats

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Exit Poll Predictions for UPA:

1. India Today-Axis: 77-108 seats
2. News 24-Today’s Chanakya: 95 seats
3. News18-IPSOS: 82 seats
4. Times Now VMR: 132 seats
5. India TV-CNX: 120 seats
6. Sudarshan News: 124 seats

Actual Results:

NDA: Won 352 seats (BJP alone secured 303 seats)

UPA: Won 91 seats (Congress won 52 seats)

The exit polls in 2019 were closer to the actual outcome, accurately predicting a substantial victory for the NDA and BJP.

2024 Lok Sabha Elections

The 2024 elections have seen a direct contest between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led INDIA bloc. The BJP aims for a third consecutive term under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, setting a target of over 400 seats for the NDA.

Key Points:

Polling End Date: June 1, 2024

Exit Poll Broadcast: June 1, 2024, from 6:30 PM

Final Results Announcement: June 4, 2024

Given the historical variability of exit polls, they should be viewed with caution. While they provide an indication of trends, the actual results have often diverged, sometimes significantly, from these early predictions.

The exit polls this evening will offer the first glimpse into the potential outcome of the 2024 elections, but the final word will come from the Election Commission on June 4.

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