A recent study published in Lancet on May 18, 2024, titled “Burden of Disease Scenarios for 204 Countries & Territories, 2022-2050: A Forecasting Analysis for Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study-2021,” has made significant predictions about global life expectancy. According to the study, males’ life expectancy is projected to increase by five years and females’ by over four years, despite ongoing metabolic, environmental, and geopolitical stresses.
Global Life Expectancy and Quality of Life
The study highlights that while life expectancy is expected to increase, the quality of life during these additional years remains uncertain. Researchers suggest that more people might live with disabilities for extended periods due to the shift from battling infectious diseases to chronic illnesses like heart disease and diabetes.
Dr. Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), stated, “There is immense opportunity ahead for us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, like high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure.”
Opportunities for Improvement
The researchers concluded that constructing alternative future scenarios, where certain risk factors are eliminated by 2050, shows that substantial improvements in health outcomes are possible through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.
Chart from the published study
India-Specific Projections and Expert Opinions
For India, the forecast shows significant improvements in life expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE):
Females
Life expectancy at birth in 2022: 73.3 years
Projected life expectancy in 2030: 75.7 years
Projected life expectancy in 2050: 79.8 years
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Males
Life expectancy at birth in 2022: 69.6 years
Projected life expectancy in 2030: 72.0 years
Projected life expectancy in 2050: 76.2 years
HALE for females
2022: 61.4 years
2030: 63.3 years
2050: 65.9 years
HALE for Males
2022: 60.8 years
2030: 62.7 years
2050: 65.5 years
Expert Insights
Dr Anshu Rohtagi, Senior Consultant, Department of Neurology, Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, commented, “I agree with the study which says that strokes, which are currently and are also projected to remain one of the leading causes of both deaths and disability-adjusted life years, are mainly due to an ageing population and lifestyle factors.”
He added, “Diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia are some additional factors responsible for the increasing incidence of stroke. To prevent a high burden of stroke, measures such as promoting a healthy lifestyle, managing chronic diseases, ensuring wider availability of medications, timely thrombolytic therapy (clot removal), and strengthening healthcare systems along with policy and environmental changes can make a difference.”
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Dr Atul Mathur, Executive Director, Interventional Cardiology and Chief of Cath Lab, Fortis Escorts Heart Institute, emphasized, “Ischemic heart disease is the same as coronary artery disease, where obstructive blockages form in the artery due to the deposition of atherosclerotic plaques. Preventive measures include healthy eating, regular exercise, and good control of blood pressure, blood sugar, and cholesterol.”
“It’s going to remain the number one killer and disabling disease with continued bad lifestyle, increasing stress, and yet lack of understanding of the exact mechanism of formation of these blockages. Till we understand the mechanism, the solutions can’t be found,” Dr Mathur said.
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Dr Lancelot Pinto, Consultant Pulmonologist and Epidemiologist, P. D. Hinduja Hospital and MRC, noted, “Historically, as countries prosper, nutrition gets better and vaccination programs get robust, infectious diseases tend to decline. However, with prosperity comes dietary and lifestyle changes that can harm. India is one of the leading producers and consumers of tobacco in the world, and COPD, often associated with smoking, is likely to manifest strongly as the population gets older.”
Dr Pinto also said, “Air pollution, use of indoor biomass fuels, and poor lung development in childhood are all significant risk factors for the disease, and unless we take preventive health more seriously, our health systems will not be able to cope with the huge burden of the disease.”
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Dr Arvind Kumar, Chairman, Institute of Chest Surgery, Chest Onco Surgery and Lung Transplantation, Medanta Hospital, Gurugram, said, “As far as Indian population is concerned, the COPD burden may be higher than what this report has predicted. Of course there are efforts being made to control the pollution, and I hope and pray that those efforts make a substantial difference on the ground with which we will be able to decrease our possibly huge COPD potential.”
He elaborated by saying, “There are reasons for COPD continuing to be this kind of disease. So, as life expectancy will increase, our overall exposure to various agents which cause COPD will also increase. Smoking, despite all efforts, still continues to be rampant and that is the number one contributor to COPD.”
“There are various other diseases which are also coming and pollution, of course a major factor today which is responsible. So, all of these things put together will continue to keep COPD and I feel that there is an India specific issue. Overall chest disease burden in India will be much higher than what the West predicts because we continue to struggle with the earlier problems of infectious diseases, including tuberculosis. On the other hand, we have started seeing a massive increase in the new age diseases like lung cancer,” Dr Kumar said.
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Other Key Findings of the Study
The study forecasts several important trends in global health:
- Reduction in Global Disparities: Countries currently with lower life expectancies are projected to see significant increases, reducing global disparities.
- Shift in Disease Burden: The burden will continue to shift from Communicable, Maternal, Neonatal, and Nutritional (CMNN) diseases to Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs).
- Leading Causes of Disability and Death:
- Ischemic Heart Disease will remain the top cause of both Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and deaths in both 2022 and 2050.
- Stroke will rise from the third leading cause of DALYs in 2022 to the second in 2050, while remaining the second leading cause of deaths.
- Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) will remain the third leading cause of deaths.
- Diabetes and COPD, ranked fifth and sixth for DALYs in 2022, will move to third and fourth positions, respectively.
- Alzheimer’s and Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) will move up from the seventh and tenth positions for causes of deaths in 2022 to fourth and fifth positions in 2050.
